By Selina Stoller, Summit Consumer Receivables Acquisitions, LLC
According to CNBC, a bull market is any time period where stocks are going up in value (at least 20 percent).
A few specific statistics are painting a broader picture of the current financial cycle and are indicative of a market peak as opposed to flags along the way.
Here are a few indicators causing chatter among investors:
The current bull market in the coming weeks will become the longest ever recorded.
In less than three weeks, the current bull market will rank as the lengthiest of all times. If the S&P fails to decline at least 20 percent from a high following at least a 20 percent gain, the bull market is considered ongoing. This current cycle has been unusually long with an unusual jolt of rapid corporate-profit growth.
September marks a decade since the failure of Lehman Brothers began a market crash and global financial crisis.
The tenth anniversary of the September 2008 implosion of Lehman turned a bear market in stocks into a 55-percent loss by March 2009. The recovery has been profound and lasted a long time – but not particularly remarkable in the big picture. Nothing indicates a quick or dramatic give-back is due. Typically, at the end of a major bull market, the trailing 20-year annual gain is approaching 20 percent.
Apple last week became the first company to reach $1 trillion in market capitalization.
This is probably the easiest milestone to dismiss as a fun curiosity rather than an indication of doom. The new 13-digit mark-value point is a function of a steady climb in overall mark values. At $1 trillion this represents 4 percent of the S&P 500’s value. Throughout history, the largest stock in the market often commands an even larger piece of the market.
If – through some unforeseen economic weakening or market shock – the January market high was the peak for this bull market, it would be no cause for concern to investors. Profit growth, credit conditions and, U.S. economic data are not playing along with the “imminent downturn” path yet.
- 14 Aug, 2018
- Josh Smith